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Elite 8: Saturday Games Breakdown March 29, 2008

Posted by Aaron in Kevin Love, Memphis Tigers, NCAA, NCAA basketball, North Carolina, Tyler Hansbrough, UCLA Bruins, david padgett, davidson, drew lavender, elite 8, final four, kansas jayhawks, louisville cardinals, march madness, north carolina tar heels, stephen curry, sweet 16, texas, texas longhorns, xavier muskateers.
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Friday’s games proved to be pretty bland, as Kansas, Davidson, Memphis, and Texas won by 15, 17, 18, and 20, respectively. The Jayhawks romped ‘Nova as the talk of them being too balanced, too, deep, and too strong proved to be true in a 72-57 finish. The Cinderella of the tournament, the Davidson Wildcats, beat Bo Ryan’s Badgers 73-56 after being tied at halftime. Stephen Curry?…well, I’ll get to him later. Memphis ran Izzo and the Spartans nearly out of the gym in the first half, building a 30 point halftime lead, and cruised to an easy 18 point win. Texas had strong play from Augustin and their 3 guard set on the perimeter, but were effective in the paint against the Lopez twins too, winning going away, 82-62.

So the field of 64 has been whittled to just 8 teams; 8 teams that will be trimmed to 4 by Sunday night. Besides Davidson, a #10 seed in the midwest, there aren’t a hell of a lot of surprises: all four #1 seeds, one #2 seed, and two #3 seeds. Here’s how the bracket looks:

Left Side

East Region:  (1) unc.jpg  v  (3) louisville.jpg

Midwest Region:  (1) kansas.jpg  v  (10) davidson.jpg

Right Side

South Region: (1) memphis.jpg v  (2) texas.jpg

West Region:  (1) ucla.jpg  v  (3) xavier.jpg

So, what’s going to happen over the next few days? How are the next 4 games going to shake down; will all 4 top seeds keep on going? Let’s take a look at Saturdays 2 games:

Saturday

West Regional Final - (1) ucla.jpg  v  (3) xavier.jpg - 6:40p, Phoenix

It was a popular pick to pencil in the Bruins all the way to the final 4 on Selection Sunday, and if you did, your bracket might still be doing pretty well. But Ben Howland’s crew has made you sweat through the process. It hasn’t been pretty for UCLA after they beat the 16 seed Mississippi Valley State, as they were truly pushed to the limit against Texas A&M and Western Kentucky. This isn’t shocking if you take a look at the Bruins over the latter part of their season; they haven’t won a lot of games going away. One positive out of this is that they find ways to win, and a win is all that matters. But can they get by Xavier with 35 mediocre minutes and a strong finish?

The A-10 regular season champs got a nice seeding in the tournament, and when the 2, 4 and 5 seeds (Duke, UConn, Drake) all dropped in the 1st weekend, things looked pretty good for the Musketeers. As the message “remember Ohio State” (lost last year to the 1 seed in OT) was drilled into their minds, they took the court and avoided an upset by topping the SEC champs Georgia. Their next few games would be against opponents a bit more difficult, Purdue and West Virginia. But the experience of this team proved true, as the won both games, the latter in OT.

When you look inside, all you can think about is Kevin Love. The ridiculously good freshman averaged an impressive double double and does all the little things right. Heck, against Western Kentucky they even got career numbers from Keefe. Xavier answers with Josh Duncan, who at times, has played beyond his normal abilities. Duncan had 16 to beat Purdue and a team high 26 to top West Virginia. Lavender holds it all together for Xavier and that was best seen in the last game against WVU, where late in the game and OT he hit his first few field goals of the game; this guy is clutch. But this is third straight elite 8 for UCLA, so the edge in experience goes to them. The Bruins have been near the top all year long and know what they have to do to get the job done. The difference in this game is the bench. UCLA has some serious threats that could come out of nowhere. I like UCLA to advance in this one in yet another close game. But with the close games recently, I wouldn’t be completely shocked if Xavier pulled the upset.

East Regional Final - (1) unc.jpg  v  (3) louisville.jpg - 9:05p, Charlotte

Talk about popular picks, the Tar Heels were almost a consensus to be playing in San Antonio way back in the pre-season. Like UCLA, the Heels played at or near the top of the rankings all year long and ended as the number 1 team in the land. They have Tyler Hansbrough down low who along with Michael Beasley of Kansas State, are the 2 top players in the country. Now, unlike UCLA, the Heels have not had a hard time in the tournament so far; they’ve breezed by their opponents. Here’s some scores for you: 113-74, 108-77, 68-47. Those are the final scores of the 3 games North Carolina has won so far. That’s a combined margin of 91 points, and that…is pretty damn impressive. They blasted the 16 seed and then Indiana, but the most impressive win was that 68-47 blowout over Washington State. The Cougars are a stout defensive team and were a 4 seed for a reason, but UNC picked them apart. Talk about deep: Hansbrough, Elington, Ginyard, Lawson, Green…and so on, and so on.

On the Cardinals team things are run a bit differently sometimes. The big man, David Padgett, basically plays the point. He’s just as impressive calling out the plays (hey, look at the results) as he is down low; he is certainly the complete package. But can he keep up with Hansbrough? The Cardinals had 4 players average double figures in points and they’ve had balanced scoring outside and inside so far in their 3 games in the tournament as well. They’ve had little contribution the last game from Sosa and it didn’t seem to matter. They can run (beat Tennessee) and they can play half court. They press like crazy which can be very hard to figure out; after all they have a championship winning coach organizing the trap.

So, how does this game play out? Well, don’t expect the 100+ game from the Tar Heels again. But don’t expect Louisville to score from so many places on the floor again. This game is going to feature good guard play and 3 point shooting is going to be critical. But the key is inside: Hansbrough or Padgett. Can Padgett keep up with the more athletic and versatile player? Will Caracter shifting over to double Hansbrough bring about more problems? My guess is yes, and even with 2 men on him, he can still score. I like North Carolina to move on here when they build an 8-10 point lead in the 1st half and trade baskets for much of the rest of the game.

Tomorrow, breakdown of the Sunday games. Enjoy!

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